A big problem with guilter analysis of Guede's activities on the night of November 1-2, 2007 is that they emphasize what they think Guede would or would not do instead of what they know he was capable of doing. Guilters make these speculations of what Guede would or would not have done from criteria they cannot prove Guede even thought about.
23-01 Yes, Guede had been in the downstairs apartment of the guys he played basketball with. He would know what was in that apartment and may not have been interested in what he could steal there. He had never been in the upstairs apartment where the girls lived, and he could have been curious what they had that was worth stealing. He had not been worried about being caught the other times he was arrested for breaking and entering. There was no reason to expect him to be any more cautious this time.
23-02 Actually, Guede was seen on CCTV at the entrance of the parking deck accross the street from the villa at 7:41 PM. We know he's that man because he said there was a white car with its lights on standing near the driveway of the villa, and that car can be seen in the CCTV. Why he chose this time to case the villa for a possible burglary is a total mystery, but it would have been dark.
23-03 Maybe walking out of the parking deck gave Guede time to consider how exposed the front door was to the street. Still, there's no way to guess what criteria he considered.
23-04 Guilters question why Amanda Knox didn't notice Filomena's window when she went to the villa the next morning to take a shower and get a change of clothes. If they think she should have noticed that window because it was broken, then Guede who would have been looking for a weakness would have noticed the shutters were not completely closed. Since guilters claim that Guede was familiar with this type of window, he could have decided he had a chance of opening the shutters in order to break the window.
23-05 It's debateable that the parking lot lights would have illuminated Filomena's windows very much. Typically, parking lot lights are focused where the light is needed. That's where the cars are. Maybe Guede should have knowledge of easier access routes to breaking into the upper apartment, but there's no proof that he remembered them. According to guilters, Filomena's window was obvious when walking toward the villa. So Guede would have to been aware of that possibility.
23-06 The shutters would not have been completely closed because they didn't fit right. Why would Guede limit himself to a window he knew beforehand that he could break through? He wouldn't know for sure if he could break through until he tried. Why couldn't he have gone to another window if he failed with the first one?
23-07 Since he knew how this window worked, he could have preferred it to another he was not familiar with. He could easily go to another window if he found he couldn't get in through Filomena's window.
23-08 Probably because Guede was wearing sneakers instead of hiking boots, he didn't leave any scratches on the wall he climbed to Filomena's window. Since he was wearing sneakers, he probably made sure there was no slippery grass or mud on the soles of those sneakers that would have made it harder to climb.
As it is, there is a scuffed mark on the corner of the window below where Guede would have stepped on his way up to Filomena's window.
23-09 How do we know Guede didn't use a stick or other extension to knock the shutters open before reaching for the window sill?
23-10 How do we know that nobody saw Guede climbing to Filomena's window? Did the police locate anyone who walked by between 7:42 PM and 9:00 PM to see what they saw? I doubt the police wanted proof that he was climbing the wall. Assuming anyone saw him, would that othe person call police? Given how much drug activity went on in that neighborhood, witnesses might not want to get involved.
23-11 A smaller rock would have made a smaller hole in the window. Guede wanted to break through the window enough that he could climb through afterwards.
23-12 Guede was a basketball player. The rock was heavier than a basketball, but he could still lob it the same way. How do we know Guede had not practiced with other rocks before coming to the villa. Of course if he hadn't managed to hit the window right in one shot, he could have tried a second shot. Hitting exactly right in one shot could have been extreme luck. How does anyone know he did it in one shot anyhow?
23-13 The rock hit the inner shutter bruising and scratching it and embedding broken glass into it. The inner shutter absorbed the momentum of the rock allowing it to drop to the floor under the window.
23-14 Yes, there was a bag of clothes already on the floor below the window. For the rock to be found in the bag, the clothes in that bag must have already spilled onto the floor.
23-15 Again, Guede would have made sure there was no slippery grass nor mud on his sneakers to hamper his climbing the wall.
23-16 Why would the force of the rock have to be light for the broken glass to stay on the sill? The direction of the force was toward the interior of the room. That's the direction the broken glass would have taken except a few pieces that broke with lesser force than the rest. They would have come straight down but would fall from the force of gravity which would have been the same no matter how hard the rock was thrown.
It is worth noting that if the rock had been thrown through the window from the inside, a great deal of glass would have fallen to the ground outside. If the window had been pulled in to keep that from happening, the resulting broken glass deposit would have been totally different than was found.
23-17 There was no reason glass would have fallen to the ground outside when Guede pulled himself onto the window sill. However, an imperfection in the shoe prints he left in the villa was probably from a piece of the broken glass that wedged into the sole of that shoe.
23-18 When Guede was arrested, his right hand did have cuts in it. Guilters claim it was not from the knife slipping in his hand while he was stabbing Meredith. So do they claim the cuts were also not from cutting himself on the broken glass from the window?
23-19 Since Guede had made sure there was no slippery grass or mud on his sneakers before climbing the wall, why would he leave any of that when he got into the villa?
23-20 Guede probably did pull the shutter together to obscure that the window had been broken. Keeping Filomena's room dark would provide another reason Geude was able to surprise Meredith when she came into the villa. Of course it may just have been habit to turn off the light when he left the room.
23-21 No clothes were taken out of a closet or the cabinets. All of the clothes on the floor had been scattered there when the bag under the window fell over. Probably the bag toppled over on its own before the rock hit it, but since the rock was found inside the bag, the force of its impact may have scattered more clothes that had not already come out.
23-22 That the rock may have scattered some of the clothes is demonstrated in that some of the glass was found under the scattered clothes as well as on top of them. That there was broken glass found on top of the scattered clothes does not prove how the clothes were scattered on the floor.
23-23 Would jewelry, designer purses, or glasses be things that Guede would be interested in stealing? He would have no ready market for selling them. They would just be identifiable evidence tying him to his burglary. What he would want was cash. He may have thought there was a way of using the credit cards without getting caught, and he would have expected information from Meredith's cellphones that he could get money for.
23-24 Using the front bathroom was another reason Guede was able to surprise Meredith. Since he was on the commode, he probably didn't expect anyone to come home that early. He probably thought all the girls would be out partying until much later as they usually did when he observed them.
23-25 Guede must have closed Filomena's door since Meredith didn't notice anything to alert her to danger when she came home. This may have been a habit since he closed Meredith's door later. He probably closed the front door on leaving, but since he didn't lock the front door, it came open again because of the faulty latch.
23-26 We only have Guede's word for it that he was playing loud music on his ipod. Meredith would not have been able to see Guede on the toilet even if the connecting doors were open. It was more like a hall with three sections.
The shutters of Filomena's window were only partially open. Even if the lights were on, it would not have been obvious that the window had been broken. Likely, Meredith didn't look to one side or the other but just walked toward her room in the back of the villa.
23-27 Even if Guede had not closed the door to Filomena's room, why would Meredith notice the mess from the break-in? Meredith was heading to her own room. She wouldn't have had a view of the mess until she was past Filomena's door. There was no reason for Meredith to have looked back that way.
23-28 Even if Meredith had looked toward the door of the front bathroom, she could not have seen into the second section where the toilet was.
23-29 Yes, Guede has claimed that in spite of the music on his iPod, he heard commotion from the rest of the villa. We only have his word for it that he was listening to his iPod. He may have said this to make seem unlikely that Meredith was unaware of his presence. Of course he may very well have noticed her presence when she turned on a light.
23-30 There is plenty of evidence that Guede attacked Meredith in her room. What his thinking was leading up to this attack is speculation.
23-31 It's purely speculative to think that Guede made an instant decision about anything. He may have only wanted to intimidate and subdue her at first. Maybe achieving these things inspired him to try and rape her, and that decision led to her death.
23-32 Guede probably sneaked up behind Meredith while she went to her room. He did have on his sneakers at the time. Since Meredith wasn't expecting anyone to be in the villa, she may not have been alert to hear him coming until he had one hand holding her from behind while the other hand held his knife to her neck. Maybe he originally intended to push her into her room closing the door for a good enough head start escaping without being recognized, but taking her into the room would indicate he was in no hurry to leave.
23-33 The medical examiner first indicated that only a small knife was used to make the wounds to Meredith's neck. The large wound was made by repeated stabs to the same area. That large wound was ragged as the result of the multiple stabs that created it. Bruise marks beside the wounds were made by the hilt of the knife handle. Since the wounds were all the same shallow depth, these hilt marks indicate all the wounds were made by the same small knife. There is only the bloody imprint of one small knife left on the sheet.
23-34 Yes, we know that Meredith put up a fight when Guede attacked her in her room.
23-35 The bra clasp had been cut from the bra. Guilters also claim the disrobing of Meredith was a staging after her death to make it seem she was sexually assaulted. Whatever the truth is about the disrobing, Guede did leave his skin DNA inside Meredith.
23-36 Whatever the sexual assault was, it did not include rape since the medical examiner said it didn't happen. How, TJMK knows the struggle before the stabbing was prolonged is not explained. All we know is that Guede had surprised Meredith and gotten her into her room.
23-37 The majority of the struggle is documented in blood coming from Meredith's neck. There were Guede's bloody footprints and smears from Meredith's body as she continued fighting.
23-38 It's ridiculous to say there were no defensive wounds when there were those awful wounds to Meredith's neck. Guede tried to subdue her by holding his knife to her neck, but she fought on anyhow. He may not have meant to kill her, but he did stab her to try to get her to stop fighting him.
23-39 It would have been impossible for Meredith to scream while suffocating on her own blood. It's only speculation that the three ladies trying to sleep in nearby apartments actually heard Meredith scream. Most likely Meredith was already dead anyhow. The medical examiner had initially estimated the time of death to be around 9:30 PM. Guede claimed he left the villa around that time. It was only because Mignini couldn't place Amanda and Raffaele at the villa at that time that he decided it had to have been later.
23-40 The only reason Mignini theorized a second knife was because he wanted to put it into Amanda's hand to claim she delivered the fatal stab. The medical examiner originally said there was just one knife, but Mignini had to have that changed to fit his scenario.
23-41 Now why would Guede be concerned that the police would soon arrive? Who was going to call them? Meredith's scream would not be heard for another two hours according to Mignini and Massei. Besides, how can TJMK claim Guede immediately ran away when he said that he got towels out of the small bathroom and tried to stop Meredith's bleeding? TJMK believe many things Guede said if it implicates Amanda and Raffaele. Part of what he said that implicates them is that they left him trying to save Meredith's life.
23-42 It's not clear whose footprint was on the bathmat. Supposedly, it measured to be Raffaele's footprint, but the measurement was inaccurate because it was estimated from a photo. More than likely, Guede only dropped a spot of blood onto the bathmat, and Amanda stepped onto that spot of blood when she got out of the shower the next morning. That's why there is only half a footprint. Also, unless TJMK accepts that Guede did take his right shoe off in order to wash blood off of it, then Amanda was the only one who had been barefoot in the villa.
23-43 Guede did claim he got towels out of the small bathroom to try to stop Meredith's bleeding. So it would have been Guede who went into that bathroom with Meredith's blood on his hands. We do know that someone got that towel and tried to use it on Meredith. Why does Guede have to have a purpose for leaving blood in the places it was found in the bathroom?
23-44 Amanda's and Raffaele's Luminol indicated footprints outside of Meredith's room were not confirmed to have been in blood when the additional test was done. However, even if those footprints had been in blood, there was certainly the spot of blood Guede left on the bathmat that Amanda stepped on to provide the small amount needed to make those footprints, and Raffaele could have stepped on her footprints and made his own footprint. It still could have been something innocent that the Luminol reacted with. Even pond scum can react with Luminol. The possibilities are extensive which is why the additional test is necessary.
23-45 It's more likely that Guede got Meredith's blood on the front of his pants. It that's the source of the spot of blood on the bathmat, it may not have dripped off his pants until he got to the small bathroom. It would have been exceedingly awkward to get his leg into the sink to wash it. He probably cleaned the dripping blood from his pants using a towel.
23-46 Guede did leave his bloody hand print on the pillow. What does TJMK think this has to do with his bloody right foot?
23-47 Why does TJMK think Guede re-entered Filomena's room?
23-48 How did TJMK determine that anyone cleaned up the floor in Filomena's room, but left Amanda's footprints? There were no smudges or cleanser residue, and Amanda didn't leave those footprint until the next morning.
23-49 So how could anyone have known where the blood traces where when they could only be found with Luminol?
23-50 What Guede may have thought about Filomena's floor is purely speculative even if he said anything about it.
23-51 There is no evidence that Guede used towels to clean anything in Meredith's room. The towels were positioned close to her neck. Maybe he did try to stop her bleeding as he said he did. But that's all those towels were used for except maybe to clean away the dripping blood from his pants.
23-52 Again, why would Guede be worried about a scream that was not heard for two more hours? He probably didn't notice Meredith was suffocating to death while he was trying to rape her.
23-53 Maybe Guede put Meredith on the sheet and the pillowcase because he was squimish about raping her on top of all the blood that was on the floor.
23-54 There's nothing but speculation in the notion that Guede even thought about his footprints in Meredith's room to decide anything about cleaning them up.
23-55 Meredith could have borrowed Amanda's night stand lamp, but it could be that Guede was the one who put it there for whatever reason he had.
23-56 That he put the duvet over Meredith's body does indicate he may not have intended to kill her. He was probably subconsciously covering up his crime.
23-57 It was Guede's DNA that was found on the purse. So it follows that he stole the wallet, but wouldn't want to keep the receipts.
23-58 Nothing that Guede did about Meredith was smart. DNA didn't necessarily have to be left on the purse straps. Maybe it took more pressure on his fingers to get the zipper open.
23-59 Guede also took two credit cards. It was the presumption that Amanda and Raffaele took the cell phones to delay discovery of the body. It applies more to Guede than to Amanda and Raffaele who know how to turn cell phones off as the simpler solution. It would have been Guede who would have wanted the door shut and locked on his crime. Amanda and Raffaele could have just gone on their day trip as planned.
23-60 Again, why would Guede be concerned about the police coming? The scream attributed to Meredith would not be heard until after 11:30 PM. Guede wasn't concerned about Meredith showing up. Why would he be concerned about Amanda showing up?
23-61 Amanda and Raffaele were accused of all sorts of ridiculous things to mislead the police. Why wouldn't Guede contrive to close and lock the door without turning in his footprints to do so in order to make it seem the door had to have been locked later? It still remains that there simply was no evidence of anyone being in that villa but Guede and Meredith. Meredith couldn't have closed and locked her door. So Guede must have been the one who did it no matter how he managed it.
23-62 Or it may be that Guede deliberately left bloody footprints through the hall and livingroom and out the front door to mislead the investigators. Maybe he returned in socks only to close and lock Meredith's door. Her keys were never recovered.
23-63 Even if he had intended to take Filomena's camera and computer, he would have realized that those items would identify him with the murder. As it was, he threw away the cell phones before returning home, and the keys, wallet, and credit cards were never found.
23-64 Probably Guede initially refrained from flushing the toilet to avoid alerting Meredith of his presence. Likely, he simply forgot about the unflushed toilet. He had forgotten his unflushed toilet while visiting the guys downstairs.
23-65 How does TJMK know that Guede left the front door of the villa open? All we know for sure is that he didn't lock it. The front door would come open on its own if not locked. So there's no way to be sure Guede hadn't closed it when he left. Guede had a reason to want Meredith's door locked. He wanted to be shut of the crime he had done. That reason didn't extend to the front door.
23-66 If Guede was supposed to have been in such a hurry to leave the villa, why would he want to wait long enough to re-lock the driveway gate? Actually, he would have less reason to want to be seen at the driveway gate than to be in the villa out of sight.
23-67 Nara Capezzali didn't see whoever ran up the metal stairs of the parking lot. She couldn't have known if it were Guede or not. Guede claims to have left the villa at 9:30 PM. And his dialing of one of Meredith's cell phones at 10:13 PM would indicate that this was so. Even if he took a whole hour attacking Meredith, he would have left an hour before Mrs. Capezzali thought she heard a scream and footsteps going up the metal stairs.
23-68 It would make sense that Guede would go out of his way to throw away Meredith's cell phones. That would distance him from the phones which he only wanted for whatever usable information like bank accounts and passwords they might contain.